The US-Iran conflict has pushed oil and gas prices sharply higher, disrupted global shipping routes and triggered fresh updates to UK sanctions lists. For UK practices, this is not background noise. It has direct consequences for client finances, compliance obligations and borrowing costs.
Here is what matters.
What Is Actually Happening?
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, targeting its military infrastructure and nuclear programme. Iran responded with counter-strikes against US bases across the region and moved to close the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important energy corridor in the world. Around a fifth of the global oil supply passes through it daily. Since the conflict began, tanker traffic through the strait has dropped by over 85%. Major shipping lines, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have suspended Gulf transits entirely, with vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to delivery times and significant cost.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, declared force majeure on gas contracts shortly after the conflict began. No LNG tankers have exited the strait since. Oil prices surged from ~$70 pre-strikes to $100+ (peaking $119), trading at ~$100 as of March 12, 2026, with forecasts higher if disruptions persist. UK gas futures more than doubled, hitting 146+ pence/therm.
The UK has not participated militarily in the strikes. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has called for a return to diplomacy while condemning Iranian counter-strikes. UK bases in Cyprus, Bahrain and Qatar have been among those targeted by Iranian missiles, and the RAF has been deployed in a defensive capacity.
What Does the US-Iran Conflict Mean for UK Businesses?
Britain is a net importer of both oil and gas. It takes its energy prices largely from international markets rather than setting them, which means when wholesale costs move sharply, UK businesses absorb the impact with limited protection.
The consequences are already feeding through. Business energy contracts tied to wholesale prices are rising. Shipping delays and rerouting are pushing up supply chain costs across multiple sectors. For clients in logistics, manufacturing, hospitality and food production, the pressure on operating margins is the most immediate concern.
Cashflow forecasts and business plans produced before the conflict may need revisiting. The question for most practices is not whether clients will be affected but which ones, and how soon.
What Does the US-Iran Conflict Mean for Interest Rates?
Before the conflict, the Bank of England was widely expected to cut its base rate from 3.75 percent at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. That expectation has weakened considerably.
Rising energy prices push inflation higher, and the Bank has been clear that rate decisions follow the inflation outlook. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has publicly acknowledged that upward pressure on inflation is a likely consequence of the conflict. Clients who built financial plans around an imminent rate cut may need to revisit those assumptions.
Variable rate borrowers, landlords approaching remortgage decisions, and businesses planning to refinance are most directly affected. These clients need to know where things stand before making commitments based on expectations that may no longer hold.
Does Your Client List Need a Sanctions Check?
With the economic picture understood, there is a separate and more immediate obligation for practices to address.
UK accountants, bookkeepers and tax advisers are classified as relevant firms under UK financial sanctions law, which carries mandatory reporting obligations regardless of firm size. Since January 2026, the UK Sanctions List held by the FCDO is the only authoritative source for UK sanctions designations. The OFSI Consolidated List has been closed and is no longer updated. New designations under the Iran sanctions regime have been added since the conflict escalated, and practices that have not been rescreened since February are working from an incomplete picture.
A breach of UK financial sanctions is a criminal offence. OFSI has the power to impose financial penalties and refer cases to law enforcement. Voluntary disclosure, where required, should happen without delay.
Any client with business ties to Iran, Gulf-region counterparties or supply chains running through the Middle East warrants a check against the current UK Sanctions List at gov.uk.
Which Clients Need a Conversation First?
The US-Iran situation is not affecting every client equally. The following client types carry the most immediate exposure and are worth contacting proactively.
- Import and export businesses with supply chains through the Middle East or the Gulf region
- Energy-intensive businesses in logistics, manufacturing, hospitality and food production
- Clients with variable-rate debt or refinancing plans built around an expected rate cut
- Property investors and landlords with upcoming mortgage decisions
- Any client with business relationships involving Iranian-connected entities or Gulf-based counterparties
- International trade clients whose contracts contain force majeure clauses linked to geopolitical events
Conclusion
Nobody knows how long the disruption stemming from the US-Iran conflict will last or how far energy prices will climb. What is clear is that sanctions lists are being updated, wholesale energy costs are elevated, and the Bank of England’s next rate decision will be shaped by how the situation develops.
Practices do not need to have all the answers. But they do need to be ahead of the questions. Rescreen your client list. Revisit exposed client plans. And reach out before clients pick up the phone to you. That is the difference between being a trusted adviser and simply being reactive.
